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US Seasonal Drought Outlook

Latest Seasonal Assessment

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Over the past 30-days, drought persisted and/or intensified across the Northeast, the interior Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Surplus precipitation fell over the Atlantic Coast states from about the Delmarva Peninsula southwestward across the eastern Carolinas to northeastern Florida, resulting from the passage of former Hurricane Matthew almost two weeks ago. Surplus precipitation was also reported across the northern High Plains, the northern Rockies, the Pacific Northwest, and northern California during the past 30-days. The rainy season in the West has gotten off to a good start this year.

The seasonal drought outlook valid from October 20, 2016 to January 31, 2017 is based on various precipitation forecasts at various time scales out through 90-days, including WPC's days 1-7 precipitation forecast, CPC's Week-2, Weeks 3 and 4, and 30-day and 90-day outlooks. It is also based on dynamical climate model precipitation forecasts such as the NMME, IMME, and CFS, as well as climatology, and to a limited extent considers typical effects of a weak La Niña on the U.S. during the cold season. La Niña is favored to develop (about a 70-percent chance) during the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2016 and slightly favored to persist (about a 55-percent chance) during winter 2016-17.

Across the western contiguous U.S., there is a general model consensus regarding drought improvement and/or removal across eastern Oregon, northern portions of California, and perhaps far northwestern Nevada, with drought expected to persist farther south. In fact, drought improvement and/or removal is anticipated across most drought areas located over approximately the northern half of the Lower 48 states, which is consistent with the notion of frequent low pressure systems and accompanying upper-level troughs. This includes the northern Rockies, the northern High Plains, portions of central Pennsylvania, all but southeastern New York, and the northwestern half of New England. The one exception is over northern New Jersey, southeastern New York, and the southeastern half of New England, where dynamical model guidance does not favor strong indications for drought improvement/removal, but rather drought persistence.

The southern half of the contiguous U.S. is predicted to experience overall degradation of drought conditions, with drought persistence or intensification favored. Areas of predicted drought development include portions of the Gulf Coast region, extending across much of eastern Texas, and over parts of the southern High Plains. This latter region has recently experienced warm temperatures and gusty winds, leading to flash drought conditions on a smaller-scale. The only exception to the widespread dryness across the southern Lower 48 states includes eastern parts of both Kentucky and Tennessee, which are expected to be close enough to migratory low pressure systems passing to the north.

Elsewhere, small areas of remaining drought in both Hawaii and Puerto Rico are expected to improve and/or be removed during NDJ. The Hawaiian precipitation forecast favors above-median precipitation across the archipelago, while in Puerto Rico, the continuation of the rainy season into November favors the removal of remaining drought across both south-central Puerto Rico and the adjacent island of Vieques.

Forecast confidence for both Hawaii and Puerto Rico is moderate to high.

Forecaster: Anthony Artusa


U.S. Drought Monitor




Mild weather once again dominated the majority of the U.S. this past week. Temperatures of at least 10 degrees warmer than normal dominated much of the Plains, Midwest, and Mid-South. Near to slightly below-normal temperatures were confined to New England and south Florida.

The drought-stricken areas of the Southeast, southern California, the Intermountain West, and the northwestern Plains received little, if any, precipitation resulting in the persistence or deterioration of drought conditions in these areas. Meanwhile, the coastal Northwest, the south-central U.S., parts of the Midwest, and New England saw rainfall with the passage of a cold front through those areas.




Global Drought Monitor



Severe Weather Watch

Global Warming brings Climate Change and increasing amounts of precipitation. Wake up folks!
Around the globe we will experience more extreme weather, from drought to floods, wildfires, storms, tornadoes and hurricanes.

2016.02.13 Bridgetown, Barbados Severe drought across Caribbean


Hurricane Sandy - October 2012





Hurricane Igor - September 2010

Hurricane Igor

Hurricane Igor was the most destructive tropical cyclone on record to strike the Canadian island province of Newfoundland. The origins of Igor were within a broad area of low pressure that formed on August 26, 2010, over Ghana. Tracking slowly westward, it developed into a tropical depression on September 8 and a tropical storm shortly thereafter. Increased wind shear temporarily halted intensification over the following days. On September 12, explosive intensification took place, with Igor reaching Category 4 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A prolonged turn towards the north was apparent by this time. Peaking with winds of 155 mph (250 km/h), the system gradually weakened before brushing Bermuda as a minimal hurricane on September 20. Turning northeast, Igor began to transition into extratropical cyclone, completing this phase within hours of striking southern Newfoundland. The remnants of Igor were later absorbed by another cyclone on September 23 over the water between Labrador and Greenland.

It resulted in minor damage throughout Bermuda, totaling about $500,000. Later, before becoming an extratropical cyclone, Igor caused significant damage in Newfoundland, roughly $200 million. Due to the extent of damage in Newfoundland, the name Igor was later retired by the World Meteorological Organization and replaced with Ian.


Typhoon Sondga

2011.05.27 - Typhoon Sondga


Hurricane Irene 2011

Hurricane Irene heading for US East Coast

2011.08.25 01:15UTC


2013 Hurricane Season

2013 Atlantic Hurrincane Season (wikipedia)

System Category Date Winds km/h Pressure mbars Location
Andrea TS Jun 5 - 9 100 992 Yucatán Peninsula, Cuba, Eastern US, Canada
Barry TS Jun 17-19 75 1003 Central America, Mexico
Chantal TS Jul 8 - 10 100 1005 Central Atlantic
Dorian TS Jul 24 - Aug 3 95 999 Central Atlantic
Erin TS Aug 15 - 18 65 1006 Central Atlantic
Fernand TS Aug 25 -26 95 999 Mexico
Gabrielle TS Sep 4 - 13 95 1003 Eastern Caribbean
Humberto 1 Sep 8 -14 140 980 Central Atlantic
Ingrid 1 Sep 12 - active 145 990 Mexico




TS = Tropical Storm
Annual average tropical disturbances = 11. For Year 2010 = 19.
Annual average hurricanes = 6. For Year 2010 = 12.

NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NHC - National Hurricane Center

UCAR - University Corporation for Atmospheric Research


Hurricane Watch

National Weather Service - National Hurricane Centre

Current Tropical Cyclones


NOAA National Weather Service

Storm Prediction Center




2011 Mar 31

NASA Earth Observatory - Natural Hazards

Crops and Drought



Severe Storms



2011 Mar 18

Feeling the Sting of Climate Change


Video: 5 min (requires Flash Player)


2011 May 21

Irish Weather Online

2011.05.21 - Above Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast



Spring 2011

Flood Watch

Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada


Live Flood Webcams

Winnipeg Free Press - Flood Fight 2011 - from the air

Winnipeg Free Press - Flood Fight 2011 - from the ground

Manitoba Flood 2011

The Assiniboine River overflows its banks in Brandon, Manitoba. 2011 May 12.

Global Winnipeg

Global Winnipeg - 2011 April 04

Saskatchewan Flood Information


North Dakota, U.S.A.

NOAA Flood Watch

Google Maps

Red River Valley - Fargo Flood 2011

Red River Flood News 2011

Red River Flood 2011 on Facebook

Valley Flood Watch: Red River Valley, Fargo, North Dakota

Irish Weather Online: Major flooding likely in North Central U.S.A.

Environment News Service: Spring floods begin, March 21


Ontario, Canada

Ministry of Natural Resources


Fire Danger

2015 July 05

Canada Fire Map


Fire Danger Map



Natural Resources Canada

Forest Fires in Canada

Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources - Current Forest Fires

Ontario MNR - Aviation, Forest Fire & Emergency Services


We are conducting a very critical experiment that endangers all living species.

Are we already past the point of no return?








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News Archive - (2008 - 2010)




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